The ECB hinted that it would continue to loosen, and economists poured cold water on it-g227

European Central Bank hinted that the continued easing of economists poured cold water picture source: the European Central Bank hinted that the continued easing of economists to pour cold water, European monetary easing policy has reached an end? As the ECB releases more and more strong easing signals, economists are skeptical about its possible options and effectiveness. The summary of the January policy meeting yesterday showed that the ECB Management Committee agreed that the current policy needs to be evaluated and possibly reconsidered in the next meeting in March". Amid widespread worries about the global economic outlook, ECB officials have expressed strong concern over sluggish growth and low inflation. The lack of wage growth has shown that weak oil prices have depressed prices, low inflation or become entrenched, while China’s hard landing is likely to increase, bringing more downside risks to europe. Delagi, governor of the European Central Bank, said on Monday that he is ready to expand quantitative easing and will play a role in promoting growth and inflation". He hinted that action would take place in March, and said the ECB had a lot to choose from. But many economists disagree with him. Of the 59 economists polled by Reuters in January, only 31 agreed, and the other 28 said the ECB had little choice. "In principle, the central bank has unlimited possibilities, but obviously the ECB faces enormous political constraints," said Robeco chief economist Leon Corbelissen. Economists generally expect the ECB to reduce the overnight deposit rate by 10 basis points from the current -0.3%. In addition, the ECB is likely to continue to maintain or expand its quantitative easing program. Last December, the central bank announced that the current 60 billion euros monthly asset purchase project delayed six months to March 2017. Nevertheless, economists expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the current monetary easing in europe. ING Financial Markets economist Peter Vanden Houte in Holland expects the European Central Bank to take action in March, but he believes that the central bank has touched the limit of the effect of monetary policy". "Given the current negative interest rates and quantitative easing formula seems to have lost its effectiveness, the risk is too large, the dose may bring to the European central bank expected the opposite effect," he said, "when the monetary policy, vice versa." Martin Feldstein, a professor of economics at Harvard University, recently questioned whether Europe could achieve the goal of boosting growth and boosting inflation through quantitative easing. The European version of quantitative easing has never achieved the same effect as the United States, although the means are basically the same. He said, because Europe lacks universal shareholdings like the United States, so the breadth cannot stimulate the consumption by increasing the wealth of the residents; in addition, although the volume of the euro promotes the net export of Europe through devaluation, the trade of the countries in the euro area is largely through its theory

欧洲央行暗示继续宽松 经济学家猛泼冷水 图片来源:网络   欧洲央行暗示继续宽松 经济学家猛泼冷水   欧洲的货币宽松政策是否已经走到了尽头?在欧洲央行释放越来越强烈宽松信号之际,经济学家对其可能的选择和效果表示了怀疑。   昨日公布的1月政策会议纪要显示,欧洲央行管理委员会一致认为,需要在3月举行下次会议时对当前的政策进行“评估并可能重新考量”。   在全球经济前景忧虑弥漫之际,欧洲央行官员们对萎靡的增长和低迷的通胀表示了强烈的担忧。纪要称,工资增长乏力已表明疲弱的油价已拉低物价,低通胀或因此变得根深蒂固,与此同时,中国硬着陆可能性在加大,为欧洲带来了更多下行风险。   欧洲央行行长德拉吉周一曾表示,已做好扩大量化宽松的准备,将在推动增长和通胀中“发挥其作用”。   他暗示将于3月采取行动,并表示欧洲央行还有很多选择可以动用。不过很多经济学家并不同意他的看法。1月接受路透调查的59名经济学家中,只有31人表示认可,另外28人认为欧洲央行的选择余地不大。 “原则上央行拥有无限可能,但显然欧洲央行面临巨大的政治约束,”Robeco首席经济学家Leon Corbelissen表示。   经济学家普遍预计欧洲央行将把隔夜存款利率从目前-0.3%的基础上再降低10个基点。另外,欧洲央行很可能会继续维持或扩大其量化宽松项目。去年12月,该央行宣布将现行每月600亿欧元资产购买项目延迟六个月至2017年3月。   尽管如此,经济学家对欧洲现行货币宽松政策的效果表示了怀疑。   荷兰国际集团金融市场(ING Financial Markets)经济学家Peter Vanden Houte预计欧洲央行将于3月采取行动,但他认为,该央行已触及了“货币政策所能实现的效果极限”。   “目前给出的负利率和量化宽松配方似乎已经失去了效力,现在的风险是,过大的剂量可能会带来跟欧洲央行预期相反的效应,”他说,“物极必反,货币政策亦然。”   哈佛大学经济学教授Martin Feldstein近日撰文质疑欧洲能否通过量化宽松实现提振增长和推高通胀的目的。文章称,一直以来欧洲版本的量化宽松就从未取得过美国那样的成效,尽管手段基本相同。   他说,因为欧洲缺乏美国那样的普遍持股现象,因此量宽无法通过增加居民财富刺激消费;另外,尽管量宽通过贬值欧元推动了欧洲的净出口,但欧元区国家的贸易很多都是通过其它欧元区国家实现的,对美国的出口也并未从欧元兑美元汇率下跌中获益多少。欧洲出口商通常用美元结算,且对美元标价的调整非常缓慢。   与此同时,量宽也很难将欧元区的通胀水平提升到近2%的目标水平。他说,在美国,量宽推高了核心通胀率,这一过程是实际需求增加的副产品,是失业率下降和工资上涨实现的。而在失业率接近12%的欧元区,要想通过量宽推高通胀,很可能只能通过贬值欧元促使进口价格上涨来实现。   因此,“这些政策对增加欧元区的实际经济活动和物价水平助益或将非常小,”他写道,“要想真正复苏经济,欧元区国家需减少对欧洲央行量宽政策的依赖,而专注于结构性改革和财政刺激。”   2016年开年以来全球股市和油价的暴跌,尤其是中国经济放缓,为全球增长前景蒙上了阴影。周四,经合组织(OECD)警告,全球增长前景“实际上已处于持平状态”并将全球增长预测从3.3%调降至3%。该组织敦促发达国家政府采取“紧急”和“联合”行动来提振经济。经合组织预计中国经济2016年将增长6.5%,与此前预期相同;但将欧元区的增长预期削减了0.4个百分点至1.4%。   1月会议纪要显示,欧洲央行官员对中国前景的忧虑加重了。“中国正在进行的经济再平衡……最终可能证明比预期更加显著,从而引发硬着陆,”纪要称。周三公布的1月美联储会议纪要也以中国增长放缓为由,指出美国经济面临的下行风险在加大。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: