Pay attention to the fruit powder! IPhone may rise after Trump comes to power-shishangqiyi

Pay attention to the fruit powder! After Trump came to power, iPhone may rise. Nobody knows what kind of economic policies Donald Trump will take when he performs his duties, but one thing he has repeatedly stressed is to impose heavy taxes on goods from china. This is a worrying news for American consumers, because a lot of goods are made in China, and even high-end electronic products such as apple iPhone. According to economists, heavy tariffs on Chinese goods may lead to an increase in the price of electronic products. Trump even threatens to impose a 45% tax on imports from China, which means that when some goods are shipped to the United States, the government will impose a 45% tariff on the value of the goods. Fortunately, Barclays research data released last week said that Trump would not impose a 45% tariff on goods. Analyst Mike Norggay Pentti (Michael Gapen) and his team say the Trump administration is likely to impose a 15% tariff on goods from china. However, this does not mean that the price of iPhone will rise by 15%. Amit Khandelwal, a professor of economics at Columbia University, said: "in general, if the tariff rises by 15%, we will find that the price of the product has also risen, but the range will not reach 15%.". However, the rise is still very obvious." Paul Wachtel, a professor of economics at the Stern School of business at New York University, said: "tariffs are usually aimed at wholesale prices." Paul Wachtel said. If you have a $1000 computer, the price at the airport may be $500, or even lower." If you follow Trump’s tariff plan, it means that the price of iPhone is likely to rise by $97. But the rise may be slightly lower, perhaps 50 dollars earlier. But big companies like apple may take their own tariffs and write off their profits. The immediate impact of a sudden increase in tariffs may be limited, but the impact on the electronics industry may still be behind. Trade war Wo Chi Tell said: "whether iPhone is going up 10 dollars is a small matter.". If President Trump starts to impose high tariffs on electronic products, will it cause serious damage to the global electronics industry? That’s the real problem." For apple and other American companies, the bigger trouble may be that China takes retaliatory measures to raise tariffs on the United states. China media Global Times points out this possibility. The newspaper said in an editorial Monday, said that if Trump really do so during the campaign, said a substantial increase in tariffs China of imported goods, the Chinese will take the opposite measures. The editorial said that when a large number of orders for Boeing aircraft will be transferred to the European Airbus hand, U.S. auto sales in China will fell, apple mobile phone almost was crowding out, U.S. soybean and corn from China extinct. China will also reduce the number of students studying in the United states. China may raise tariffs on products imported from the United States, or embarrass apple in other ways, such as strengthening supervision or promoting local brand development. Wo Qitai)

果粉们注意了!特朗普上台后iPhone可能要涨价没有人知道美国当选总统唐纳德 特朗普(Donald Trump)在履职后会采取什么样的经济政策,但是有一点他已经反复强调过,要对来自中国的商品课以重税。这对美国消费者而言,是一个令人担忧的消息,因为大量的商品由中国制造,甚至是苹果iPhone等高端电子产品。据经济学家预测,对中国商品征收重税可能将导致电子产品售价的上涨。特朗普甚至威胁将对从中国进口的商品征收45%的税,这意味着,当一些商品运往美国时,政府将会就商品的价值征收45%的关税。幸运的是,巴克莱银行上周发布的研究数据称,特朗普不会对商品征收45%的关税。分析师迈克尔 盖彭(Michael Gapen)及其团队称,特朗普政府有可能对来自中国的商品征收15%的关税。不过,这并不意味着iPhone的售价将上涨15%。哥伦比亚大学经济学教授阿米特 坎德瓦尔(Amit Khandelwal)表示:“通常情况下,如果关税上涨15%,我们将发现产品的价格也上涨了,但幅度不会达到15%。不过,上涨的幅度还是很明显的。”纽约大学斯特恩商学院经济学教授保罗 沃奇泰尔(Paul Wachtel)说:“关税通常是针对批发价。如果有一台售价1000美元的电脑,其达到机场时的价格可能是500美元,甚至更低。”若真按特朗普的关税计划,则意味着iPhone的售价可能上涨97美元。但上涨幅度也可能稍微低点,也许是之前估计的50美元。不过,苹果这样的大公司可能自己承担关税,用利润进行冲销。突然大幅提升关税的直接影响可能有限,但对电子产品产业的影响可能还在后面。贸易战沃奇泰尔表示:“iPhone是否上涨10美元这都是小事。如果特朗普总统开始对电子产品征收高关税,这会否对全球电子行业造成严重的破坏?这才是真正的问题所在。”而对于苹果等美国公司而言,更大的麻烦可能是中国对美国提升关税而采取报复性措施。中国媒体《环球时报》就点明了这种可能性。该报在周一的社论中称,称如果特朗普真的如其在选战中所说的大幅提高中国进口商品的关税,那中国将采取争锋相对的措施。社论称,届时大量波音飞机的订单将转到欧洲空客手里,美国汽车的在华销售将受重挫,苹果手机差不多要被挤走,美国大豆、玉米将从中国绝迹。中国还将减少留美学生的数量。中国可能对从美国进口的产品提高关税,或从其他方面为难苹果,例如加强监管或推动本土品牌发展。沃奇泰尔说,社论中所暗示的贸易战将增加全球经贸中的不确定性,这对所有参与全球贸易的经济体都是有害的。工作岗位不会回流特朗普做出对进口产品征收45%关税的承诺是想讨好产业工人,他们认为这一政策将保护美国贸易。特朗普在3月份的一次集会上表示:“我将令苹果回到美国,而不是在中国生产电脑和iPhone。当这些产品在中国生产时,对我们会有什么帮助?”坎德瓦尔表示:“如果我是一位在电子产品工厂的工人。我可能免于竞争,这可能是一件好事,但届时产品的价格将上涨。”iPhone等产品现在不在美国生产,未来也不太可能在美国生产,这是因为该产品的几乎每一个零部件,例如芯片、显示屏以及按键都在亚洲生产。坎德瓦尔说:“电子产品向海外转移的主要原因在于整个供应链都在那里。可能与美国相比,那里生产最终产品的成本要低些。除此之外,还有一个优势在于你靠近其他供应商,而他们又是东亚供应链的组成部分。”沃奇泰尔表示:“对于全球整个经济而言,最大的优势在于能找到以更低成本生产的地方。通过贸易摩擦使得每位参与者都受伤,你将难以把具体某个工厂带回俄亥俄州、密歇根州或其他地方。”沃奇泰尔说:“这不仅是个坏主意,而且甚至不可能发生。”如果特朗普政府对苹果或其他电子公司进行道德绑架,使他们将制造带回美国,有一种可能就是迫使iPhone的生产工厂充满机器人。坎德瓦尔表示:“最终工厂可能会回到美国,但这些其他会琢磨如何更加自动化地进行生产。在中国生产一件商品需要100个人的话,在美国生产同样产品可能就不需要这么多人。”(编译 李路)相关的主题文章: