Investment, consumption, industrial production are warming forecast September three economic -81sese.com

Investment and consumption in industrial production are now warm   forecast in September three major economic data – Xinjiang channel — people.com.cn investment and consumption of industrial production are now warm institutions predict September three economic data "Economic Reference News" reporter integrated multi Agency forecast, September macroeconomic performance remained stable overall, investment, consumption, industrial production three big data is expected to rise slightly. Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, said that the growth rate of fixed asset investment in September is expected to increase by 8.2%, slightly higher than that of last month. In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by about 10.8% in September, slightly higher than in August. In terms of industrial production, industrial added value is expected to increase by 6.5% in September, faster than last month, and the growth of consumer goods manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industry is relatively fast. Xie Yaxuan, chief macroeconomic analyst at China Merchants Securities, said that in September, the biggest change in the real economy data may be that the growth rate of investment is expected to rebound slightly. PPP is a project operating rate is expected to enter the peak period, the two is the real estate sales and scale land transactions in the three quarter of the overall remained stable, help to alleviate the short-term real estate investment is slowing down three of the profits of industrial enterprises continued to rise on manufacturing investment rebound will also help. On the other hand, high frequency data still show that industrial production will continue to remain stable, although the end of summer has a certain impact on public utility production, but the boost effect of export traditional season on manufacturing industry can hedge this effect. It is expected that the growth rate of fixed asset investment will rise slightly to 8.2% in September. Consumption growth remained stable, expected to be 10.5%. Industrial added value increased by 6.3%. Some experts are not optimistic about the economic data forecast in September. Haitong Securities Research Institute chief macroeconomic analyst Jiang Chao believes that due to capacity on manufacturing investment, purchase and new construction slump dragged down real estate investment, fiscal stimulus to overdraft future infrastructure investment pressure, investment growth will fall to 7.2% or September. Since September, the growth rate of power generation coal consumption has dropped slightly, and the industrial growth rate will drop to 6.2%. In addition, the consumption growth rate rebounded slightly in August, mainly due to the highest proportion of automobile growth rate, accounting for the second highest oil growth positive. But at the end of August car sales growth has declined, car sales continued high Holdings Limited, while oil prices limited upside in the short term, the future short-term consumption or a limited space to improve. Retail growth slowed to 10.4% in September. For the future trend of macroeconomic operation, China Banking International Financial Research Institute of China Economic and Financial Research Group believes that the future investment growth is expected to stabilize rebound. The rapid growth of new projects, the steady rise of investment to form a strong support. PPP project floor rate increases, promote infrastructure and related investment rapid growth. As the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has turned negative, the loss of households in the past 3 months has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. In addition, the process of destocking and production capacity is speeding up, and the motivation and willingness to invest will gradually be restored. In addition, consumer confidence is expected to improve, and housing consumption is expected to continue to grow rapidly, consumption will continue to maintain steady growth. Work) 投资消费工业生产均现暖意 预测9月三大经济数据向好–新疆频道–人民网   投资消费工业生产均现暖意   机构预测9月份三大经济数据向好   《经济参考报》记者综合多家机构预测,9月份宏观经济运行总体保持稳定,投资、消费、工业生产三大数据有望出现小幅回升。   交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,预计9月固定资产投资增速8.2%,比上个月略有上升。消费方面,综合判断,9月社会消费品零售总额增速10.8%左右,比8月小幅上升。而工业生产方面,预计9月工业增加值同比增长6.5%,比上个月有所加快,消费品制造业、装备制造业、高技术制造业增长较快。   招商证券首席宏观分析师谢亚轩表示,进入9月,实体经济数据方面最大的变化可能在于投资增速有望小幅回升。一是PPP项目开工率有望进入高峰期,二是地产销售和土地成交规模在三季度整体仍保持稳定,有助于缓解短期地产投资下行速度,三是工业企业利润持续回升对制造业投资止跌回稳也有一定帮助。另一方面,高频数据仍显示工业生产将继续保持稳定,暑期结束虽然对公用事业生产有一定冲击,但出口传统旺季对制造业生产的提振作用可以对冲这一影响。预计9月固定资产投资同比增速小幅回升至8.2%。消费增速保持稳定,预计为10.5%。工业增加值同比增长6.3%。   也有专家对于9月份经济数据预测并不乐观。海通证券研究所首席宏观分析师姜超认为,由于去产能拖累制造业投资,购地和新开工低迷拖累地产投资,财政刺激透支未来令基建投资承压,9月投资增速或将降至7.2%。9月以来发电耗煤增速小幅回落,工业增速将降至6.2%。此外,8月消费增速小幅回升,主要缘于占比最高的汽车增速走高、占比次高的石油增速转正。但8月底汽车销量增速已有所回落,汽车销量高增持续性有限,而油价短期内上涨空间有限,未来短期消费改善空间或较有限。预测9月零售增速降至10.4%。   对于宏观经济运行未来的走势,中国银行国际金融研究所中国经济金融研究课题组认为,未来投资增速有望企稳回升。新开工项目快速增长,对投资企稳回升形成有力支撑。PPP项目落地率提高,推动基础设施及有关投资较快增长。由于工业企业盈利增速已转负为正,近3个月亏损家数比去年同期明显减少,加之去库存、去产能进程加快,预计投资动力和意愿将逐步恢复。此外,消费者信心增强,预期改善,加上居住消费有望持续较快增长,消费方面也将保持稳定增长。工业生产方面,总体保持平稳的积极因素仍然存在。基础设施投资较快增长、房地产销售高增长仍将是拉动工业特别是一些传统工业增长的重要因素。企业库存压力减小,成本也将保持降低趋势,盈利有望继续改善,这有助于企业恢复生产信心。   连平提醒,虽然近期经济运行出现企稳迹象,但当前企业投资信心和意愿仍然较弱,缺乏自主扩大投资的积极性。民间投资增速低位企稳,但能否反弹存在很大不确定性。 (责编:阿通古丽(实习)、韩婷)相关的主题文章: