Economic observation how far is the central parity of RMB from 6.8 New China net-running man20130526

Economic observation: how far is the central parity of RMB from 6.8? Beijing – China News Agency, Beijing, October 10 (Xia Bin) last September, UBS said in a report released by the end of 2016, the RMB exchange rate will depreciate to 6.8; in August of this year, the group re issued report, despite the devaluation of the renminbi is likely to accelerate, but is expected to China decision-making may not allow the renminbi against the dollar depreciated by more than 6.8. "6.8" has become a benchmark of the RMB exchange rate trend. 10 days, China officially announced the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar, fell below 6.7, reaching 6.7008, the lowest since September 2010, whether the RMB will be depreciated to 6.8 at the end of this year, the discussion is renewed. "Intermediate price breaking 6.7" has symbolic significance." Chinese Bank International Finance Research Institute researcher Gao Yuwei told News Agency reporters in an interview that "6.7" is widely regarded as the bottom line of the central bank short-term Chinese middle price, but from the market point of view, the spot exchange rate of RMB in the bank as early as July of this year fell to 6.7 on the party. He believes that the RMB formally acceded to the IMF’s special drawing rights (SDR), China’s central bank for the devaluation of tolerance will increase, but will not be a one-time sustained depreciation, but in the two-way wide fluctuations in the orderly depreciation. "The biggest factor affecting the future trend of the RMB exchange rate is the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations, by the end of the RMB exchange rate in 6.7 to 6.8 of the possibility of larger, do not rule out approaching 6.8." Gao Yuwei said. The report, released by UBS in August, points out that the possibility of further appreciation of the dollar will exacerbate the pressure of devaluation. Deputy director of China world economic and political Academy of Social Sciences Institute of international financial research center Xiao Lisheng held the same view, and further explained that once the Fed rate hike is expected to heat up, in December the implementation of interest rate movements, global investment risk preference change, resulting in a substantial outflow of funds from emerging markets, including Chinese, will increase the pressure of RMB devaluation in supply and demand the relationship between. The dollar index continued to rise from the recent situation, the U.S. economy as a whole is good, its September services PMI (PMI) reached 57.1, hit a new high this year, manufacturing PMI back ups and downs over the line, although the latest U.S. payrolls data than expected, but all Fed officials held a positive attitude on the hike at the end of the interest rate is still a high probability event. Xiao Lisheng said that after the optimistic judgment, the RMB exchange rate will be at the end of 6.72, if the global financial market risk increases, may be close to 6.8, but below 6.8 unlikely. "Work out measures to suit local conditions." In the view of China Merchants Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Xie Yaxuan, yuan price below 6.7 is the embodiment of the two-way exchange rate fluctuations, the middle price without sticking to a fixed price. Xie Yaxuan believes that with the RMB currency basket, SDR officially entered the trade surplus scale seasonal expansion, Chinese bond market opening, energy and economic subject of foreign debt basically come to an end, the increase in holdings of foreign assets demand basically stable situation, must)

经济观察:人民币中间价离6.8有多远?-中新网   中新社北京10月10日电 (夏宾)去年9月,瑞银集团发布报告称,2016年底人民币汇率或将贬值至6.8;今年8月,该集团再发报告称,尽管人民币贬值可能加剧,但预计中国决策层可能并不会允许人民币对美元贬值幅度超过6.8。   “6.8”已然成为人民币汇率走势的一个标杆。10日,中国官方公布人民币对美元中间价,跌破6.7,达6.7008,创下自2010年9月以来的最低值,“人民币是否会在今年底贬值到6.8”的讨论再起。   “中间价破6.7具有标志性的意义。”中国银行国际金融研究所研究员高玉伟在接受中新社记者采访时指出,“6.7”被外界普遍看作是中国央行对中间价的短期底线,但从市场来看,在岸人民币的即期汇率早在今年7月就跌至过6.7上方。   他认为,人民币正式加入国际货币基金组织的特别提款权(SDR),中国央行对于人民币贬值的容忍度会提高,但绝不会是一次性的持续贬值,而是在双向宽幅波动中的有序贬值。   “影响人民币汇率未来走势的最大因素是美联储加息预期,到年底人民币汇率在6.7至6.8的可能性较大,不排除逼近6.8。”高玉伟说。   上述瑞银集团8月发布的报告指出,美元未来进一步升值的可能性加剧了人民币贬值的压力。   中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究室副主任肖立晟持相同观点,并进一步解释称,一旦美联储加息预期升温,12月执行加息动作,全球投资风险偏好改变,导致资金大幅从包括中国在内的新兴市场流出,将在供求关系上增加人民币贬值压力。   从近期美元指数持续上涨的态势来看,美国经济整体向好,其9月服务业PMI(采购经理指数)达到57.1,创下年内新高,制造业PMI重回荣枯线以上,尽管最新公布的美国非农数据不及预期,但一众美联储高官对加息持肯定态度,年底加息仍是大概率事件。   肖立晟表示,此前乐观判断年底人民币汇率将在6.72上下,若全球金融市场风险加大,可能会接近6.8,但跌破6.8可能性不大。   “兵无常势。”在招商证券宏观首席分析师谢亚轩看来,人民币中间价跌破6.7是汇率双向波动的体现,中间价无需死守某一固定价位。   谢亚轩认为,随着人民币正式进入SDR货币篮子、贸易顺差规模季节性扩大、中国债券市场对外开放,以及经济主体偿还外债的动能基本告一段落,在增加持有对外资产的需求基本平稳的情况下,决定了中国外汇市场的外汇供应情况将逐步改善,以此将对人民币汇率形成支撑。   中国宏观政策若有变化亦将影响人民币汇率。此前,中国央行行长周小川在华盛顿出席今年第四次二十国集团财长和央行行长会议时指出,随着全球经济复苏逐步正常化,中国会对信贷增长有所控制。   对此,肖立晟指出,未来货币政策如果稍有收紧,适度减少流动性,进而有可能抬高利率,支撑人民币汇率。   中国外汇交易中心官网10日发布文章称,参照一篮子货币变化,人民币对美元双边汇率升贬都是正常的,未来还将继续双向浮动。中长期看,中国经常项目保持顺差、外汇储备充裕、财政状况良好、金融体系稳健的基本面决定了人民币不存在长期贬值的基础。(完)相关的主题文章: